Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future start Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC) Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC) : Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC) ::: I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) Betting pools Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC) July 97L.INVEST 97L.INVEST Rescently popped up. Not on the TWO yet, but it's in the western GOM off of Mexico. Not forecast to do much anyways. Ryan1000 20:35, July 16, 2013 (UTC) :This isn't a real invest; it's a test product for transitioning to a new supercomputer. See the NHC's Facebook post. --HurricaneMaker99 01:45, July 17, 2013 (UTC) :::Ah crap. Didn't catch that, it didn't look half-bad either. Well, at least 08W in WPac is... Ryan1000 04:33, July 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::Aren't test invests supposed to have the leading number of 8 or 7? - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:33, July 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::The nhc explain in their facebook page that they give the num 97l because when they use 8, models don`t intialize correctly as with 9ths.Allanjeffs 08:26, July 18, 2013 (UTC) :::::Oh, ok. Thanks, it makes sense now. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:06, July 19, 2013 (UTC) AOI: West of Florida Random 10% area in the northern Gulf of Mexico. I think this will not develop before making landfall tomorrow. --[[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 04:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :Down to 0% as it moves inland. --[[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 16:12, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Yeah, just some random AOI that had no chance. Waste of time to even write it up IMO, just like the one off of NC earlier. But, conservatives are conservatives...can't blame them. Ryan1000 17:20, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Off the TWO. I guess Dorian will come later... [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:37, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Ugh. Come ON Dorian. I mean, we have been waiting for you. (I think that he might form by next week.) ::: Rara Hooves 20:23, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Uggh, we always look forward to a new name to become, well, named! Hello? Dorian! Are you coming anytime soon? You are welcome to form anytime, we want to see new names do something. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 21:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::::None of the reliable models see any development in the next 7 days over the Atlantic. I agree with them, I don't really expect much to happen until August begins. The East Pacific has been unusually quiet since Erick; we've had 2 hurricanes in July over there, which is typical, but July typically sees 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major for EPac. The Atlantic has been the same since Chantal, but it's only sleeping for the time being imo. We'll get a lot more activity come August and September. Ryan1000 03:40, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::Waiting for Dorian to come? Ain't nobody got time for that. I mean COME ON, seriously. Is Dorian spending too much time in the mirror like his alter ego Gray? Come on, we are not gonna get a lot of storms in August thanks to this little fella. We all know this is fixed, Ingrid may not be the "terrifying I storm" that we had since 2001 but might be passed on to Humberto thanks to SLOOOOOOOOOOW development. Funny, eh? In September, we may see a full burst of activity. ANYWAY! Back to Dorian *Gray*, this storm, if he is taking too long to form (i.e. spending too much time in the mirror,) then he might as well become a powerful hurricane. DINKLEBERG! Rara Hooves 13:30, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::So if Dorian does not form yet, how many storms will we get this August? How bad will these storms be? Will they blow up? I'm not going to be surprised if he does not form this July and instead blows up to be a massive Category 4 or something next month. I have a meme to sum this all up. Rara Hooves 18:34, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, where the heck is Dorian?? I hope he comes soon, since we waited on him for a few weeks already! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 21:25, July 21, 2013 (UTC) Eh, try to keep things on topic guys. We don't need a fairly-oddparents and NHC mix image on here. Keep in mind, this Wiki is about hurricanes, not about other cartoons or whatever you want it to be. Anyways, this AOI is long gone, and as I said, the rest of July will probrably be dead for the Atlantic. When August and September heat up, the Atlantic will really be something to watch. Ryan1000 04:16, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :I agree. Please cut the crap, or you will have your editing privileges revoked. Please stay on topic. And don't add a million spaces to threads! And post stupid pictures no one cares about and make strange remarks about names. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::YE I don't think it's up to you to revoke editing privileges, but I totally agree with the unneeded childish aspects of the forum. -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:37, July 22, 2013 (UTC) 04L.DORIAN 98L.INVEST Well...maybe I spoke too soon, but I doubt this invest will become much. 10%, none of the models make this anything strong in the next week. 'Ryan1000' 15:22, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::I really am already starting to doubt any development out of this. Wind shear is too strong and is just going to stretch it out and make it elongated and dry air is all around it. I really don't think this is going to become Dorian anytime soon. It looks as though Dorian will be met in August. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:34, July 22, 2013 (UTC) I agree with STO. I mean, I'm pretty sure the invest is not going to r here for very long. Next month should have a burst of activity. Rara Hooves 15:41, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::Pretty much. Hey, we didn't see Danielle (a major hurricane) until August during the 2010 season, 2013 shouldn't be too much different. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:53, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::Yeah, I don't think this will develop. There's too much wind shear and dry air around it. Maybe Dorian will come in early August? [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 16:16, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I honestly hope this doesn't develop either. I don't want a bunch of POS storms that just steal a name off the list. ''Ryan1000'' 16:39, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::I totally agree with Ryan. 2011 was bad enough with a waste of names, we don't want that to happen in 2013, especially new names that haven't been used yet. [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 17:13, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::The cape verde may suffer a little as water is becoming cooler.hope it doesn´t ruin our chances because I am tired of this little weakling,we haven`t have a good cape verde since 2010 without counting Katia.Even though I hate weaklings if they deserve a name they should name it.like Jose XD.Horrible but worth of classification.Allanjeffs 17:43, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::30% looks like Dorian wants to come of this wave.Allanjeffs 18:06, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Alright, I've changed my mind. I now think this will become Dorian, and maybe peak as a moderate to strong TS. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:19, July 22, 2013 (UTC) I hope, if it does develop, it at least becomes something reasonable, like a hurricane at the very least. But NHC says the fun for 98L is only temporary, as later this week it will run into the Sahran Air Layer and rapidly weaken or die out. So if this wants to become Dorian it better do so very soon. Ryan1000 18:33, July 22, 2013 (UTC) Maybe a cat 1 but it doesn`t have a lot of time.three days max.Allanjeffs 18:39, July 22, 2013 (UTC) Oh damn it! I wanted Dorian to become something reasonable! Reasonable meaning, like, well, i don't know, a hurricane? Somehow since its close enough to the warm watered African coast, it isn't getting the brink effects of the strong wind shear or the dry desert air to its west. I think Dorian might have to be a flop for this season unless he completely impresses us like becoming a hurricane in dry air. Maybe Dorian will pull a Lisa 2010? Hopefully. If Dorian isn't stronger than at least 60 mph, it doesn't deserve to be replacing Dean from 2007. -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 19:13, July 22, 2013 (UTC) I reckon Bertha didn't have too much model support of the coast of Africa. It still doesn't mean this couldn't intensify. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:50, July 22, 2013 (UTC) : Conditions in 2008 weren't the same as they are now in 2013. There was less dry air from the SAL in early July 2008, so Bertha had a field day once it got through what little dry air was there. This thing is heading for a massive chunk of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, and it'll hit that dry air in about two days. It'll continue to pass through that dry air from there on out into late this week. If 98L doesn't become Dorian by, say tomorrow, this is doomed to epically fail. However, it will weaken the SAL, so that could mean worse news as more waves like this one continue to pass off of Africa into the heart of the season, weakening the SAL further and further as the season drags on. That, and the Bermuda High will be strengthening at the same time, which unfortunately means we could have less storms recurving out to sea and more storms impacting land. All that adds up to one thing -- this will be a nasty season. I don't think this will become much at all, but it's one of the many waves that will gradually lift the cap off of the SAL during the heart of the season (Not trying to be a doomcaster or anything, but those are the facts). Ryan1000 21:14, July 22, 2013 (UTC) : This system is becoming better organize may become Dorian tomorrow or Wenesday.I was also hoping for it to become a hurricane might become one if it strengthens rapidly.Dorian sounds like a major name but oh well.A perfect analog would be Florence of last year.Ryan I believe it will peak at 60 or 70 might become a low end hurricane too like someone mention above it may pull a Lisa.Allanjeffs 23:19, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::: Given the dry air this system is heading toward, it's highly unlikely this storm will get past 60 mph, if that. NHC says they only expect it to have the rest of today and tomorrow before conditions go rapidly downhill for this invest. I would hate to see the first storm named Dorian turn out to be an epic fail, but...unfortunately, that's what looks like will happen. Ryan1000 23:48, July 22, 2013 (UTC) -.- Why, whenever we hope for something great out of the Atlantic hurricane basin, it turns out to be the opposite. Well Future-Dorian, sorry you got stuck in a bad spot this year. Doesn't mean 2019 will the be the same (hopefully) -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 00:35, July 23, 2013 (UTC) Lets just wait for it to form and we will see if its a hurricane or a tropical storm or depression.If it moves west it might become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 01:48, July 23, 2013 (UTC) : I hope this doesn't become Dorian. If this does develop, it will just be an epic failure that will not get past 45 mph because of the dry air ahead of it. I hope this will only be a tropical depression. I mean, seriously, save the name "Dorian" for a stronger storm that won't fail! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 15:35, July 23, 2013 (UTC) : 60% Td 4 is coming and possibly Dorian.Some models have it survive or regenerate and making it to the US.Allanjeffs 17:54, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::: I think it will become Dorian soon, but it won't last long if it does. Should Dorian-to be, by some Miracle, survive the hellhole of unfavorable conditions it's heading towards, there is a very slight chance it could make it to the U.S. East Coast in 10 days or so. However, anything that far out is mere speculation at this point, and I still have doubts this will be more than TD 4 when it does form. Ryan1000 18:02, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::Please be a bust, or at least don't become named! Bah, I (quite selfishly) wanted Dorian to be a significant storm this year so that it could possibly get its name retired and replaced with my name, which is Dylan. I feel bad saying this because I know that for a name to get retired, the storm that bears it must cause a great deal of suffering, but seeing my name on the ATL lists has always been a selfish desire of mine. (Plus, if Dorian was retired and Karen wasn't, I could share a list with my mom's name!) Oh well, at least I'm going to be used down in the AUS region next season! --HurricaneMaker99 18:23, July 23, 2013 (UTC) Up to 60%, if this is going to become something......I would prefer it to stay as Tropical Depression Four. New names should have a chance to not become a flop. Some names that were unlucky on their first season would be...Ingrid 2007, Cristobal 2002, Fay 2002, Don 2011, Colin 2010, Fiona 2010, Melissa 2007, Laura 2008.....the list is never endless. Please don't let Dorian be a flop mother nature. My name is on the Atlantic name list, Otto has been used twice. One a weak tropical storm and the other a category 1 hurricane. :) [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 18:53, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :Lucky you :P Even if I were to fail on the level of Joyce from last year, it would be better than nothing. --HurricaneMaker99 19:36, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :Oh, and don't forget Lorenzo from 2001 on that list. --HurricaneMaker99 19:44, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::Here is the latest from the NHC. This invest has a 60% chance of becoming a TC. I'd prefer it if this is Dorian, since I tend to go by the phrase "the more the merrier." Don was no flop @sto12, he at least made a landfall in the US, that's still something... I am not expecting much from the system, probably just a small tropical storm, but from Erin onwards we could see the next big thing. (And congratulations to Kate and William for the new baby prince!) ::AND YES THIS IMAGE IS FROM THE NHC. Rara Hooves 19:55, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :: Don was a flop storm. It died on landfall, caused no damage, and killed no people. Don could've actualy been helpful, knowing Texas was in a drought at the time and needed rain, but it brought less than an inch of rain when it hit. Still not buying more than TS Dorian from 98L, it's got until tomorrow to become Dorian until he dies in the dry air in front of him. Ryan1000 21:09, July 23, 2013 (UTC) I do not want this storm to develop unless it becomes Tropical Depression Four or Hurricane Dorian. I am getting sick of all the recent weak storms. Anyways, this invest is looking good. AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :Not looking good right now and models are trending south if it can survive it may strength near the lesser antilles.Not going to be a fish after all.Allanjeffs 23:07, July 23, 2013 (UTC) Models have made a huge shift southward. It's looking like 98L/TD4/Dorian will be able to survive into the western Atlantic, that's if it survives the upcoming cool water in the next few days. We'll see if it can survive the upcoming cool water and if it can manage to be designated tomorrow or if we'll have to wait for a few days. Dorian will still probably be a weak little storm though. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:30, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : I hope it can survive. I mean, I don't want an epic fail/flop storm that just steals a name off the list. If this develops, this should either remain a tropical depression, or strengthen to a hurricane. I don't want another weak TS. If this survives, I hope this will become a hurricane and remain at sea. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 02:09, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : 98L is on the Brink of classification expect td 4 or Ts Dorian soon,Steven you are going to get accustom to that,in 2012 We have Patty, and Joyce and other laughable storms in 2011 we had Franklin and Jose.Every season have weaklings.Allanjeffs 02:12, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::: There is a possibility it could reach the Antillies in the long run, but it'll have a hard enough time surviving the dry air in front of it. Most of the models take it to the northernmost Lesser Antillies, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, in about 5 days or so. The other models take it just north of the Antillies and later out to sea. I doubt this will be more than a tropical storm by that time, but it still bears some watching. Like I mentioned earlier, there will be plenty of waves like this one that will weaken the SAL throughout the heart of the season. I highly doubt this will end up being a powerful Cape Verde hurricane, but it's opening the lid for them to come later on in the season. And yeah Allan, almost every season has some failure, one notable exception being 1950. I hope we don't get many this year though, failure storms are boring :| Ryan1000 02:28, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::: Special tropical outlook issue my become Dorian pretty soon and upgrade to 70%.Btw I hate more td than weak ts.I don`t want tropical depressions this year.Allanjeffs 02:49, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::: Ryan btw Dry air is not the problem,it has a lot of moisture that protect it.The problem is the cold water it will traverse for 2 or 3 days if it can survive that,it may start strengthening.Allanjeffs 02:55, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::I'd personally be alright with a TD; it would mean one less name gone to waste, plus TDs add variety. I just hope that the 10th TD becomes something significant this year (the tenth depression of the season has been unlucky in recent years. It became Fabian in 2003, but only three times since then has it become something noteworthy: it reached hurricane strength in 2006, when it was named Isaac; it caused some tornado damage as an unnamed depression in 2007; and it caused heavy flooding in Texas in 2010 after strengthening into Tropical Storm Hermine. Besides the 2007 one, the 2004, 2005, and 2011 TD 10s also failed to become named, and last year it got stuck with Joyce.) --HurricaneMaker99 04:03, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four AL, 04, 2013072406, , BEST, 0, 136N, 272W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, Finally, hope it becomes Dorian.Allanjeffs 07:37, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::If they get 40mph it meets the criteria no matter if its only for six hours,The NHC needs to be consistent with the definition.Allanjeffs 04:20, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : There is dry air in it's way Allan, as noted in the latest NHC forecast discussion on TD 4. Cooler water is also a problem, but dry air is a more prominent one imo. They see it going only to 45 mph as it quickly paces west-northwest. After it traverses the cooler water and dry air environment, they expect interaction with an upper-level trough and create southwesterly shear which should keep it in check even more. However, I'm not sure if it'll stay at 45 mph all the way through. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if TD 4 (Dorian-to be) dies sometime along the way, then regenerates later on. Ryan1000 11:44, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : Dorian is here :D AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,Allanjeffs 12:42, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : Updated he is stronger than most believe he would peak.AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, Maybe hurricane status after all is not crazy.Allanjeffs 13:15, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dorian Per what Allan said. Up on NHC. Ryan1000 14:29, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :Looks like my chance will have to wait two more years :/ --HurricaneMaker99 14:42, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::Dorian isn't guranteed to die, it actually looks a lot better than I thought it would on the latest sattelite imagery. It even might have a chance of being a hurricane in the long run, if it survives the dry air and cooler waters in front of it. Ryan1000 14:48, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Well, you can't fuss over an already named storm. Whatever it is, is what it'll always be. Until 2019 that is. Dorian is heading right into the hostile line of dry air, strong winds, and cold ocean temps. I really do not expect the season's first hurricane out of Dorian, he could possibly dissipate within the dry air and then emerge out and regenerate. But regeneration might be hard for Dorian to do as a broad area of low pressure to the north of the Caribbean islands is expected to rip any circulation a part. Dorian is going to have to be a flop, it's too bad. I guess Don from 2011 is his long lost relative. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:48, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Yes! Dorian is here. Let's see if he fails :D [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 15:14, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :You guys are so negative! :P Dry air isn't the problem, neither is shear. In fact, this storm has nearly perfect conditions outside of the few days of 25C water. 25C isn't that cold for tropical storms, and NHC mentioned that: "THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS. " The models show so much uncertainty with this track afterwards that after a few days we really don't know what it's conditions will really be. It all depends on how it survives the cold water. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:21, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::Um? Yes dry air and wind shear are the problem, otherwise the NHC's forecast would be bringing it up to a major. -.- Sure its going to try and maintain as it passes through the dry air, a lot of healthy inflow storms like this always do that. Cold waters are also a problem, if Dorian stays over cold water too long, then it'll weaken, it's only a minimal tropical storm and is quite small. It'll weaken more than a little bit when it moves into more hostile conditions, but, it doesn't mean it'll dissipate. Remember some track maps from the NHC can be false, remember Joyce from last year? Joyce was expected to strengthen and sling past Bermuda, but due to the unfavorable conditions and neighboring shear from Isaac, Joyce dissipated sooner than expected. Another example would be Chantal of this year. It was expected to make a strong landfall in Hispaniola and then affect the Florida coast, but it went south of Hispaniola and dissipated south of Cuba due to the unfavorable conditions that are plaguing the Atlantic right now. Dorian could dissipate as it gets the full brink of dry air and shear, but regeneration isn't out of the question. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:40, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::I don't see any shear affecting the system. Dry air is there yes, but Dorian has a great moisture shield. I can see shear affecting it days from now, but for now it's sole problem is the cold water. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:29, July 24, 2013 (UTC) I don't honestly expect to see a noticeable change in Dorian's intensity (hurricane-strength) until it reaches the Antillies by Monday, or possibly a little later than that. Whether or not it will affect the U.S. in the long run remains a mystery. I hope another trough comes along and wheels it out to sea, like has happened for the past several seasons. But it's way too far out to tell. Ryan1000 18:11, July 24, 2013 (UTC) If Dorian doesn`t weaken or mantain strength it would probably become a hurricane now most models have it as a hurricane and the gfs even have near or at major hurricane status.Allanjeffs 18:37, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : That's not good for the Antillies in the long run...hopefully, if it intensifies, it'll pick up the Westerlies and turn out to sea, where we can root on it to get as strong as it can, without people getting hurt. :D But, on the flip side, there is a possibility the ridge could strengthen in the latter half of the forecast period (indicated by the GFS) and it could crash into the islands as a strong hurricane. Hopefully it picks option one and heads seaward. Ryan1000 18:43, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : Erm, ok then. I'm sure he'll intensify slowly. I'm sure Dorian Gray will become this year's major, but if he does that, he would probably be nothing more than an Earl of 2010. I'm seeing him as at least a Category 1 due to the fact that he has formed in an area where strong storms are produced. : :: I have a video update here. If you want to have a look at it, feel free to do so. This is courtesy of the Weather Channel. Oh Dorian, please don't become a major... Rara Hooves 19:17, July 24, 2013 (UTC) New advisory keeps Dorian at the same intensity it was at before. Not forecast to strengthen in the short term anymore, but the long-term forecast has been raised to 50 kt. NHC is saying that the environment should be more favorable near the end of the forecast period than previously expected. --HurricaneMaker99 21:00, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : That's unfortunate...worse, some long-term forecasts from a few of the models show the trough off of the southeastern U.S. not being strong enough to force Dorian out to sea, which means we could be looking at a possible U.S. landfall in 7 or 8 days, and by then Dorian could be a powerful storm...this storm is very ominous for something so early in the season. Ryan1000 21:17, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Oh please let Dorian effect something! I'm not in favor in death and destruction, but I like it when I name gets its perks during a season. I really don't think Dorian's going to be a Hugo or an Ike like people have been mentioning, bringing the system towards the western land masses and becoming a hurricane. But the possibility is still there. As Yqt mentioned, Dorian does indeed have a large moisture field which is shielding the all important center of circulation. Hopefully this shield doesn't break apart as it pushes through the drier air. Hopefully it'll be protected enough to pass the hostile eastern Atlantic and then maybe strengthen a little in the western half. Hurricane Dorian isn't out of the question either, possibilities are still out there. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 21:48, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :: Sto, I have something to support "Hurricane Dorian" :: Yes. He could become a C1/2. Rara Hooves 21:57, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::Um? I don't see how this supports a "Hurricane Dorian". The NHC's forecast percentage for Dorian to become a hurricane is at a very low 13%. How is that a sign that Dorian is likely to become a hurricane? It makes it seem less likely to me. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 22:03, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::Not to mention that image is outdated. The 5pm advisory says that Dorian's chances of hurricane strength peak at 18% at 96 hours. --HurricaneMaker99 23:01, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::Dorian looks to be strengthening even in colder waters should be up to 60mph at 11pm if trends continue.I hope the trough save the US because Dorian looks poise to strength and the Ridge looks to be intensifying.Allanjeffs 23:05, July 24, 2013 (UTC) 99L.INVEST ---- What Ryan1000 and STO12 were discussing before this became an AOI-''' Nothing is really popping up on the NHC's website about this cluster of thunderstorms, but I thought it looked kind of interesting. The models aren't picking too much on it quite yet, but it might soon. The area of thunderstorms are just above the dry air and strong upper-level winds. It seems to be in a somewhat favorable conditions. Now, I'm not sure if this would turn into anything, but the reason why I'm bringing it up is because it's beginning to rotate and is continuing to cluster. It looks a lot like the beginning stages of development from waves that eventually became Gordon, Kirk, and Michael last year. If you look at 2012's satellite loop for the beginning wave stages for each storm, they look a lot like this. A small cluster that doesn't look like much, but became something. Even though it looks really interesting to me, I might be totally mistaken. But, thunderstorms beginning to wrap around each other like this is a hint of development. The satellite loop of this is even more revealing. [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 14:49, July 23, 2013 (UTC) : This one is far west-northwest of 98L, well in the open Atlantic. I doubt this will do much, there's a cold front heading it's way that will turn it out to sea and weaken it by tomorrow or so. I hope we don't have any weaklings come out of storms like this, keep it an open wave. Ryan1000 18:02, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ---- New CATL invest! Yqt1001 (talk) 15:58, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :Otto, is this the AoI you were discussing in that thread you deleted earlier? --HurricaneMaker99 16:37, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::Anyway, SHIPS only predicts a maximum intensity of 41 knots. Please, 99L, don't become Erin! I have a couple friends named Erin, and while I don't think they're very interested in hurricanes in general, I'd hate to see the name Erin be slapped to an epic fail. Also, I don't want a 2011-esque string of weak storms to start the season! --HurricaneMaker99 16:41, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::20%! Yqt1001 (talk) 17:32, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Wow I just deleted a part of the forum about this area of thunderstorms before it became an AOI! Haha, I re-pasted above what me and Ryan1000 talked about before this was given a 20%. Also, HurricaneMaker, I'm sorry to tell you that this looks to become Erin, a minimal tropical storm, only because it's in favorable conditions. So to all your friends named Erin, looks like they missed an opportunity for a Hurricane Erin back in 2001. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 17:56, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : Yep, I think this will become Erin. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:03, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::: It'll probrably just be a weak TS that just steals a name off the list if it does develop. But, almost every season has some failure, wouldn't be surprised if this becomes 2013's first epic fail. Ryan1000 18:11, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::Here comes a re-2011 without a single strong storm before the I name. :P Yqt1001 (talk) 18:16, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I think Dorian could become a hurricane in the long run. I doubt we'll have no hurricanes out of the first 8 named storms this year, like we did in 2011, which was a first, no different than EPac in 2003. Ryan1000 18:21, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::This one would probably become Erin,That is why you never understimate a system.Allanjeffs 18:32, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::In all honesty, I'd be surprised if this doesn't become Erin. But I don't expect it to be very strong if it does so, unless (by some miracle) it pulls a Chris and becomes a hurricane lol. Ryan1000 18:34, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Uhhh, if this becomes Erin, I doubt she'll do much. Rara Hooves 19:21, July 24, 2013 (UTC) 99L/Erin is expected to affect Canada a few days from now. Unlike 2011 (and even 2012), pending Dorian doesn't die out in the next few days, all 2013 storms so far wouldn't be a "wasted" name by just spinning fish. Definitely showing that the pattern for this year favours landfalls, we will probably get a really bad Caribbean storm sometime during peak I think. Yqt1001 (talk) 21:07, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : A good analogy to this would be Tropical Storm Ana of 1985, if the current forecasts from the models hold true and it runs into Newfoundland. It probrably won't do much, but it might not be much of a fail after all, if it doesn't stay at sea. Ryan1000 21:17, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::The SHIPS forecast has gone up as well, to 56 knots :) Maybe I won't have to be so bummed if this becomes Erin! Granted, I'd prefer Hurricane Erin over Tropical Storm Erin, but still. --HurricaneMaker99 21:27, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::Oh Erin is wanting to make an appearance, the only thing that might disturb some additional development would be the cold front to its west. If that pushes the system too roughly, Future-Erin's chances of becoming a hurricane or at least a high-end tropical storm are going to be limited. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 21:52, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::20%!! :D And by the way.... I do agree with yqt. In my opinion, as soon as we get onto humberto, trouble starts brewing. Ry, I do agree with the Canada bit, and hurricane maker, I'm seeing a ts erin but we'll get there once we hit gabby and the kind. And I kinda agree with sto. :D Rara Hooves 21:55, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::I don`t care if its only a minimal ts,Just by reaching ts status and getting a name is not a fail to me,No matter if they make landfall or not.A fail for me is a tropical Depression,and it looks like its getting better organize.The Atlantic looks that it wants to catch the Eastern pacific.If this develop we will get 3 storms in July like 2011 and we will be in front of even 2012. :::::